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YOU CAN’T RUN FROM A GUN, OR CAN YOU? By Mark Hatmaker


Let’s talk real world, rubber meets road altercation. Zero room for sport-fighting or choreography here.



In the “Fight or Flight” dictum we always counsel flight. Run. Get the hell out of wherever you are as quickly as possible. Some, will read the “flee no matter what” advice and cock an eyebrow asking “Always run? Even if they have a gun?”



You are right to be skeptical, after all, a gun does seem to be the great equalizer, able to inflict grievous harm upon us even at a distance. So, what do we do when we encounter a gun? Sorry to be the proverbial broken record but…you run.



Let me offer the following information to make your choice to run, no matter what, a bit more confident. 



Ÿ  Under 5% of armed robbers utilizing a firearm fire the weapon--those are good odds to run. Repeat—Under 5%. A percentage point of somewhere in the neighborhood of 95+% do not fire the brandished weapon.

Ÿ  Those who do fire the guns are not armed robbers but murderers or attempted murderers--I advise you to run from murderers.

Ÿ  Give up your property [always replaceable], flee and bet house odds.

Ÿ  What of those victims who are fired upon?

Ÿ  10% of the fired-upon victims of armed robbery are murdered.  Scary, right? Of course, it is. But…

Ÿ  This scenario brings us to a 10% chance at escalated violence that requires you to put distance between you and the gun. The odds favor running in either case. That is, if we have a non-firing armed-robber 95+% or a firing murderer under 5%. Of those who do fire, 10% are killed.

Ÿ  Those 10% who are murdered are shot at point blank range--again, another reason to put distance between you and them.

Ÿ  Firearms require accuracy--the greater the distance the less the chance for accuracy.

Ÿ  As a rule, criminals have not participated in a firearm familiarization course. That’s good news.

Ÿ  Adrenaline decreases accuracy, also good news as adrenaline does indeed secrete in the execution of a crime. Your adrenaline dump will fuel speed and gross-motor movement, the Predator’s adrenaline dump will decrease fine-motor skills. A smidge to our favor.

Ÿ  Distance + Adrenaline + Low Probability of rigorous firearms instruction for the predator = Run.

Ÿ  4%--Revel in that number. That is an informal police department estimate of the percentage that gun-wielding predators hit their targets. 4% is definitely in the run column. That puts the miss percentage at 96%.

Ÿ  Four shots fired per hit. What is this? This is the national average for law enforcement, citizens, and predators engaged in gun battle. 4-1 ratio.

Ÿ  Get this, the distance in these gun confrontations is…three to nine feet.

Ÿ  Three to nine feet and four shots fired per hit overall again gives heft to the advice to run no matter what. Distance is not just your friend; it is your life-saving friend.

Ÿ  1-inch per yard. What’s this? That is the spread of 00 buck ammunition fired from a shotgun--1 inch per yard. Film and television depictions leads us to believe that the ammunition dispersal from a shotgun would rule against running but the 1” per yard figure combined with the four shots fired per hit leads us again to put distance between you and your gun-wielding attacker.

Ÿ  From point-blank range to 10’ it seldom matters what is being fired.

Ÿ  The two biggest factors in determining gunshot accuracy and or wounding severity are distance (the closer the distance the greater the accuracy) and what portion of the body is hit.

Ÿ  But what of knife-wielding attackers?

Ÿ  An assailant wielding a knife is more likely to use it than those who use guns--21% of the time but…a knife is a close-range weapon--again distance is your friend.





Please consider the above information carefully and see that, as daunting as defying a weapon wielding predator may seem, running is your best self-defense no matter what.



Leave the tricky disarms to the John Wick films where they belong and run.



Deciding to run no matter what is playing the odds to save your life.






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