Let’s talk real world, rubber meets
road altercation. Zero room for sport-fighting or choreography here.
In the “Fight or Flight” dictum we
always counsel flight. Run. Get the hell out of wherever you are as quickly as
possible. Some, will read the “flee no matter what” advice and cock an eyebrow
asking “Always run? Even if they have a gun?”
You are right to be skeptical, after
all, a gun does seem to be the great equalizer, able to inflict grievous harm
upon us even at a distance. So, what do we do when we encounter a gun? Sorry to
be the proverbial broken record but…you run.
Let me offer the following
information to make your choice to run, no matter what, a bit more
confident.
Ÿ Under 5% of armed robbers utilizing a firearm fire the weapon--those
are good odds to run. Repeat—Under 5%. A percentage point of somewhere in the
neighborhood of 95+% do not fire the brandished weapon.
Ÿ Those who do fire the guns are not armed robbers but murderers or
attempted murderers--I advise you to run from murderers.
Ÿ Give up your property [always replaceable], flee and bet house odds.
Ÿ What of those victims who are fired upon?
Ÿ 10% of the fired-upon victims of armed robbery are murdered. Scary, right? Of course, it is. But…
Ÿ This scenario brings us to a 10% chance at escalated violence that requires
you to put distance between you and the gun. The odds favor running in either
case. That is, if we have a non-firing armed-robber 95+% or a firing murderer
under 5%. Of those who do fire, 10% are killed.
Ÿ Those 10% who are murdered are shot at point blank range--again,
another reason to put distance between you and them.
Ÿ Firearms require accuracy--the greater the distance the less the chance
for accuracy.
Ÿ As a rule, criminals have not participated in a firearm familiarization
course. That’s good news.
Ÿ Adrenaline decreases accuracy, also good news as adrenaline does indeed
secrete in the execution of a crime. Your adrenaline dump will fuel speed and
gross-motor movement, the Predator’s adrenaline dump will decrease fine-motor
skills. A smidge to our favor.
Ÿ Distance + Adrenaline + Low Probability of rigorous firearms
instruction for the predator = Run.
Ÿ 4%--Revel in that number. That is an
informal police department estimate of the percentage that gun-wielding
predators hit their targets. 4% is definitely in the run column. That puts the
miss percentage at 96%.
Ÿ Four shots fired per hit. What is this? This is the national average for law enforcement,
citizens, and predators engaged in gun battle. 4-1 ratio.
Ÿ Get this, the distance in these gun confrontations is…three to nine
feet.
Ÿ Three to nine feet and four shots fired per hit overall again gives
heft to the advice to run no matter what. Distance is not just your friend; it
is your life-saving friend.
Ÿ 1-inch per yard. What’s this? That is the spread of
00 buck ammunition fired from a shotgun--1 inch per yard. Film and television
depictions leads us to believe that the ammunition dispersal from a shotgun
would rule against running but the 1” per yard figure combined with the four
shots fired per hit leads us again to put distance between you and your
gun-wielding attacker.
Ÿ From point-blank range to 10’ it seldom matters what is being fired.
Ÿ The two biggest factors in determining gunshot accuracy and or wounding
severity are distance (the closer the distance the greater the accuracy) and
what portion of the body is hit.
Ÿ But what of knife-wielding attackers?
Ÿ An assailant wielding a knife is more likely to use it than those who
use guns--21% of the time but…a knife is a close-range weapon--again distance
is your friend.
Please consider the above
information carefully and see that, as daunting as defying a weapon wielding
predator may seem, running is your best self-defense no matter what.
Leave the tricky disarms to the John
Wick films where they belong and run.
Deciding to run no matter what is
playing the odds to save your life.
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